Real Sociedad vs Deportivo Alavés

Real Sociedad host Deportivo Alavés in LaLiga as bookmaker favorites, and the data largely supports this assessment. Real Sociedad sit 7th with 41 points and a rating of 6.79, while Alavés are 15th with 32 points and a rating of 6.72. The quality gap exists but is not enormous. In recent form over the last 6 matches, Real Sociedad post a WDWWWD run earning 14/18 points, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game. This is an impressive attacking and defensive record. A BTTS rate of 67% suggests the home side regularly score but also concede. Their 0% failed-to-score rate is particularly encouraging for attacking output. Alavés are in worse form with a DLWDLW sequence and only 8/18 points. However, interestingly their average goals conceded is just 0.7 — meaning they are relatively solid defensively. Their high FTS rate of 50% is concerning for BTTS, but the 7-0 win over CD Getxo skews the statistics significantly. Without that match, Alavés' attack looks modest. Injuries are a significant factor for Real Sociedad — Jon Martin (suspension), Igor Zubeldia (hamstring), Jon Gorrotxategi (muscle), Yangel Herrera (calf), and Álvaro Odriozola (ACL) are all unavailable. That is five players missing, a notable blow to squad depth. Alavés have only one absentee (Benavídez). H2H is balanced with one win each in the last two meetings, averaging 3.0 goals. In the most recent encounter (04.02.26.), Alavés lost 2-3 at home, showing Real Sociedad's attacking threat. The combination of home advantage (+0.3 goals), better form, high BTTS rate (67%), and H2H average of 3.0 goals points toward a match with goals. We predict a 2-1 Real Sociedad win, with both teams scoring. The home side's injury concerns introduce some uncertainty, but form and home advantage should be decisive.

Real Sociedad are favorites at 1.80 odds which reflects the real situation. Better form, home advantage, and attacking strength (2.0 goals avg) justify this pick, though injuries introduce some uncertainty.

Real Sociedad have a 67% BTTS rate and have never failed to score in the last 6 matches. Alavés scored in 50% of recent games, and in the last H2H both teams scored. Overall, BTTS Yes has value here.

H2H average of 3.0 goals, Real Sociedad averaging 2.0 goals scored, and the combined attacking form of both teams suggest Over 2.5 is a realistic option. The 1.80 odds are acceptable for this pick.

The 1.20 odds for 1X are low, but Real Sociedad are in good form and an Alavés away win is hard to envisage. This option provides security with acceptable returns for conservative bettors.