Fri 20 Mar, 19:45
Analysis of this match between Genoa and Udinese reveals a very balanced encounter between two teams of similar quality. Genoa currently sits 13th with 33 points, while Udinese is 11th with 36 points - a gap of just 3 points shows how close they are in the table. Both teams have negative goal difference (Genoa -4, Udinese -9), indicating defensive issues throughout the season. Form for both teams is concerning - Genoa is on a 4-match losing streak, while Udinese comes with 2 draws. In their last 6 matches, both teams average 1.0 goals scored and concede 1.7 (Genoa) and 1.5 (Udinese) goals per match respectively. BTTS rate of 67% for both teams in recent form suggests both will score. However, given the defensive problems and the fact that neither team shows dominant form, I expect a tight contest. Genoa plays at home which gives them an advantage, but Udinese recently beat Genoa 2-1 in their head-to-head meeting. Key player injuries for Udinese (Zanoli, Bertola, Zemura, Buksa) could affect their performance. Market odds favor Genoa (46.5%), but given both teams' current form, a draw seems the most logical outcome.
Both teams in poor form, very similar quality, defensive issues for both - draw is the most logical outcome
67% BTTS rate in recent form for both teams, defensive problems throughout season, recent H2H had BTTS
Average 2.5 goals in recent matches, both teams scoring only 1.0 goal per match
Genoa on losing streak, Udinese recently won H2H, odds of 1.67 provide value