Sun 22 Mar, 20:00
Khachanov enters this match as a clear favorite for good reason. The ranking gap of 136 positions (#15 vs #151) is massive in tennis and represents the biggest factor in this analysis. While Landaluce has shown solid form on outdoor hardcourt (4-2 in last 6), his level of competition has been significantly lower than Khachanov's. Khachanov is an experienced player who has reached the Top 10 and regularly competes against the world's best players. His recent form on outdoor hardcourt (1-2) may be concerning, but the losses came against quality opponents. Landaluce has a good streak of 4 wins, but his biggest success was beating DuΕ‘an LajoviΔ. Khachanov has more power on serve and experience playing at big tournaments like Miami. I expect Khachanov to control the match with his aggressive playing style and superior groundstrokes. Landaluce will try to extend sets, but Khachanov has the quality to close out the match in straight sets.
The quality gap is too large. Khachanov @1.40 represents solid value given his superiority.
Expect Khachanov domination in straight sets. Landaluce has low tiebreak rate (33%) suggesting shorter sets.
Khachanov has the quality for a 2-0 win. Landaluce's 33% three-set rate suggests he rarely forces a third set against stronger opponents.