Sat 21 Mar, 17:30
Osasuna enters this match with significantly better form than Girona FC, which is the key factor in this analysis. The home team has earned 7 points in their last 6 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per game. In contrast, Girona FC is going through a catastrophic crisis - in their last 6 matches they've earned only 2 points, averaging just 0.5 goals scored and conceding a massive 2.7 goals per game. This statistic clearly shows Girona has serious problems in both defense and attack. Home advantage gives Osasuna an additional edge, especially considering they've won their last two home matches against Rayo Vallecano (2-0) and Getafe (2-1). Girona FC has a huge number of injuries to key players including Ter Stegen, van de Beek, Portu and others, which significantly weakens their competitiveness. Bookmaker odds give Osasuna 48.8% chance to win, which seems reasonable given both teams' current form. BTTS has good value because Osasuna rarely keeps clean sheets (17% in last 6), while Girona despite poor form still scores in 50% of matches. Over 2.5 goals is likely given Girona's weak defense conceding 2.7 goals per game in recent form.
Osasuna shows stability at home and much better form than crisis-hit Girona
Osasuna rarely keeps clean sheets (17%), while Girona scores in 50% of matches despite poor form
Girona concedes 2.7 goals per game in recent form, making Over 2.5 very likely
Osasuna at home with better form against crisis-hit Girona - safer option